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Peak season pressure to develop unevenly across origins and cargo types

The air cargo industry is preparing for the post-Golden Week peak season but demand is expected to develop unevenly depending on origin and cargo type, according to freight forwarder CH Robinson. In a market update, the US forwarder said that volumes will rebound in the coming week as factories re-open following the Golden Week holiday, with technology-related demand, such as servers, semiconductors and other electronics, remaining one of the strongest demand drivers across the transpacific. "New consumer-device launches are adding another layer of time-sensitive cargo, while general freight is expected to increase more gradually as manufacturers and retailers bring in inventory ahead of early Black Friday sales, Cyber Monday, and year-end demand," the forwarder said. However, e-commerce, which has in the past few years been one of the major drivers of air cargo demand, is predicted to play a smaller role in the peak season as a result of tariff changes in the US and Europe. If carriers adjust their schedules to capitalise on the growing tech demand to the US, this could leave shippers with goods going to Europe with fewer options, especially if they require freighter aircraft rather than bellyhold, the forwarder explained. "Airlines often respond to concentrated demand by adjusting aircraft deployment, schedules, and allocations toward lanes where booking activity is strongest," CH Robinson explained. "If more freighter capacity is directed toward US-bound services, shippers moving freight to Europe or within Asia may see fewer workable options even when demand on those lanes has not increased significantly." The forwarder added that passenger belly space can accommodate a large share of general freight, but it does not replace freighters for every commodity. Asia-origin pricing could firm more noticeably from mid-October, particularly on transpacific lanes with high concentrations of technology and new-product freight, the company explained. However, demand levels will vary between gateways. "Asia Pacific-to-US demand was already running 17% above last year in mid-September, with several technology-heavy origins showing stronger gains," it said. "Conditions will vary by origin as cargo mix, gateway demand, airline allocations, and freighter schedules shape available capacity." Another factor that may impact the peak season is typhoon season, while modal transfer from ocean due to disruption to container shipping operations has also affected the market in recent years. "If the flow of general cargo remains measured and post-holiday demand is concentrated mainly in technology and time-sensitive freight, booking limitations are more likely to remain origin- and departure-specific rather than spreading broadly across Asia." The forwarder added that the Asia-Europe trade is less broadly pressured than the transpacific, even though individual technology-heavy origins may tighten. "China, Southeast Asia, and India should therefore be evaluated separately. Local cargo mix, aircraft type, gateway performance, and airline schedules can produce very different booking conditions from one origin to another."

Customer demands for new tech a dilemma for SME forwarders

Customer expectations are forcing SME forwarders to adopt new technologies, even as the most valuable applications may never be seen by those customers, threatening the qualities the operators offer over their larger rivals. Sophia Huluta, president of one such forwarder, GLC, said changing everyday relationships with technologies, including AI and real-time visibility, was leaving forwarders with no choice but to provide the same digital speed and visibility as much larger logistics companies. She told The Loadstar: "Customers absolutely expect technology. They want visibility, at their fingertips, quick quotes, fast answers. They don't care we're smaller than some of our competitors. Their expectations are based on how tech works everywhere else in their lives. "Tracking, visibility, online documents, and basic digital capabilities are quickly becoming the price of admission. I don't think a customer is going to be impressed much longer because you have a portal. They are just going to wonder what is wrong if you don't." All this, she added, was putting pressure on SMEs to ensure they have the services to remain competitive, but noting that "forwarders have an unbelievable amount of information inside their organisations", Ms Huluta questioned whether the tech could be better used. Forwarders would be more likely to benefit from systems affording greater visibility of their own business, she suggested, including the profitability of individual customers and tradelanes, as well as where opportunities and resources are being wasted. She explained: "I want to be able to ask 'where are we making money?'; 'which customers require 10 touches when another requires two?'; 'which tradelanes are we quoting constantly, but not converting?'; where are we having the same operational problem over and over again?'." This, of course, leaves SMEs facing something of a dilemma when it comes to spending the money earmarked for technological expansion, and raises questions as to how they can meet their needs while meeting customer demands for tools increasingly considered standard. Ms Huluta warned that it was a conversation SMEs needed to be having with themselves, and noted: "You can buy the best system available, but if your processes aren't good, all you've done is put bad processes into a better system. "The competitive advantage is what happens behind the portal. I don't think the forwarder with the most technology is going to win. I think the forwarder that gets the most out of its people because of technology will," she added.

Fleet expansion fuels Emirates SkyCargo's South American demand growth

Emirates SkyCargo's South American network expansion has led to double-digit percentage volume increases. Earlier this year, the Dubai-based carrier added seven weekly freighter flights from the region, including three extra flights from Buenos Aires, two additional flights from Sao Paulo, one from Bogota and another from Quito. Emirates SkyCargo said the additional flights had facilitated a "significant increase" in export volumes in the first half of the 2025/26 financial year, with Argentina growing by 57% year on year, Brazil by 22%, 18% from Colombia and 14% from Ecuador. Badr Abbas, divisional senior vice president, Emirates SkyCargo, said: "South America is a dynamic emerging hub for exports across a range of sectors including high-quality food products and fresh flowers that rely on fast and reliable air cargo connectivity to reach global customers. "Since April this year, we have transported more than 22,000 tonnes of export cargo from our South American markets, a growth of 18% over the volumes carried during the same period in the previous year." Drilling further into the increases, the carrier said that from Ecuador, the carrier was now flying six times a week and offering export capacity of around 600 tonnes. The flights go directly from Quito to Amsterdam, which is host to one of the world's largest flower markets. Flowers account for more than 90% of all export cargo uplifted from Ecuador by Emirates SkyCargo. During the financial year 25/26 the cargo business transported nearly 24,000 tonnes of flowers. Meanwhile, the carrier added a weekly freighter flight from Bogota in May and it has helped meet demand for flower exports. "In Financial year 25/26, the carrier transported more than 3,500 tonnes of flowers from the country, supporting producers with reliable access to international markets," Emirates said. For Argentina, the carrier commenced weekly freighter operations from Buenos Aires in March and in July increased to three weekly freighter flights. Since April 2024, Emirates SkyCargo has facilitated the movement of approximately 5,000 tonnes of exports from Argentina, including perishables such as fresh fruit, salmon and meat products. Finally, for Brazil, Emirates SkyCargo now flies four times per week from Sao Paulo "supporting the movement of a broad range of commodities to destinations across its international network". The extra flights have been enabled by the expansion of the Emirates fleet. The cargo carrier has taken delivery of seven Boeing 777 production freighter aircraft since March 2026 as well as the first Boeing 777-300ERSF converted from an Emirates passenger aircraft. By the end of March 2027, the carrier will operate a fleet of 23 dedicated freighter aircraft. Globally, the air cargo carrier has expanded its global network of freighter destinations from just over 40 in March 2026 to over 60 by July 2026.