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Peak season pressure to develop unevenly across origins and cargo types

The air cargo industry is preparing for the post-Golden Week peak season but demand is expected to develop unevenly depending on origin and cargo type, according to freight forwarder CH Robinson. In a market update, the US forwarder said that volumes will rebound in the coming week as factories re-open following the Golden Week holiday, with technology-related demand, such as servers, semiconductors and other electronics, remaining one of the strongest demand drivers across the transpacific. "New consumer-device launches are adding another layer of time-sensitive cargo, while general freight is expected to increase more gradually as manufacturers and retailers bring in inventory ahead of early Black Friday sales, Cyber Monday, and year-end demand," the forwarder said. However, e-commerce, which has in the past few years been one of the major drivers of air cargo demand, is predicted to play a smaller role in the peak season as a result of tariff changes in the US and Europe. If carriers adjust their schedules to capitalise on the growing tech demand to the US, this could leave shippers with goods going to Europe with fewer options, especially if they require freighter aircraft rather than bellyhold, the forwarder explained. "Airlines often respond to concentrated demand by adjusting aircraft deployment, schedules, and allocations toward lanes where booking activity is strongest," CH Robinson explained. "If more freighter capacity is directed toward US-bound services, shippers moving freight to Europe or within Asia may see fewer workable options even when demand on those lanes has not increased significantly." The forwarder added that passenger belly space can accommodate a large share of general freight, but it does not replace freighters for every commodity. Asia-origin pricing could firm more noticeably from mid-October, particularly on transpacific lanes with high concentrations of technology and new-product freight, the company explained. However, demand levels will vary between gateways. "Asia Pacific-to-US demand was already running 17% above last year in mid-September, with several technology-heavy origins showing stronger gains," it said. "Conditions will vary by origin as cargo mix, gateway demand, airline allocations, and freighter schedules shape available capacity." Another factor that may impact the peak season is typhoon season, while modal transfer from ocean due to disruption to container shipping operations has also affected the market in recent years. "If the flow of general cargo remains measured and post-holiday demand is concentrated mainly in technology and time-sensitive freight, booking limitations are more likely to remain origin- and departure-specific rather than spreading broadly across Asia." The forwarder added that the Asia-Europe trade is less broadly pressured than the transpacific, even though individual technology-heavy origins may tighten. "China, Southeast Asia, and India should therefore be evaluated separately. Local cargo mix, aircraft type, gateway performance, and airline schedules can produce very different booking conditions from one origin to another."

Empty boxes chaos at port of Manila sparks truckers' strike

Customs brokers and hauliers are expected to voluntarily stop work today in advance of a three-day trucking strike in Manila, as a year-long standoff on carriers failing to remove their empties reaches its limit - Hapag-Lloyd having suspended bookings amid the chaos. Warning the protest could "last a week", Reynaldo Soliman, chair of the Practicing Customs Brokers and Port Truckers Alliance, urged brokers not to secure gate passes, book trucks, or release shipments, until carriers reduced the number of empties at Manila. "Even though we want to ship, we cannot move," Mr Soliman told local reporters, with the number of empties scattered around terminals, hauliers yards, and waiting on flatbeds to be removed, measured in the thousands with just 10% of volumes moving out of Manila's ports. In a letter seen by The Loadstar, Bureau of Customs commissioner Ariel Nepomuceno told Port of Manila it needed to take measures to address the worsening empties backlog, suggesting boxes that had been waiting for more than 10 days be moved offsite. "Increasing yard utilisation levels at the Manila International Container Port and the port of Manila continue to adversely affect the efficient movement of cargo and the overall flow of port operations," he wrote. "Delays in the release and withdrawal of laden containers further contribute to congestion and reduce available terminal capacity, resulting in a domino effect on port operations and cargo flow." For hauliers, the issue is even more acute, with the Confederation of Truckers Association of the Philippines (CTAP) noting without space for empties, trucks were left "literally holding the mess", which CTAP president Mary Zapata noted meant a truck could not make another trip. Those issues are being compounded by the fact they are occurring alongside a spike in fuels costs and a rise in unregulated destination charges and policies, including truck bans making it harder to recruit drivers. "We are not making any money, and the problem has become very serious. In my personal assessment, the trucking industry is in an even worse situation now than it was during the pandemic," said Ms Zapata. "Almost all government offices concerned with transportation are already aware of these issues. We have raised them, and while they listen to us, we still have not seen any solution." If brokers and hauliers see carriers as being at fault, Hapag-Lloyd has responded with the news that it would not accept any bookings "to Manila, Batangas, and Subic Bay across all origins and tradelanes", as a consequence of the chaos. Having begun last week, the German carrier said the suspension on bookings would "remain in place through 31 December", unless the situation dramatically changed. Addressing the Filippino public, Mr Soliman said the failure of carriers to either remove the boxes or provide suitable yard space - instead, expecting someone else to do that - was directly causing the country's rising food prices. Sergio Ortiz-Luis, president of the Philippine Exporters Confederation, said he did not expect the protest to impact urgent shipments, but warned that, even without the planned work stoppage, there would likely be delays stemming from the issues the protest was intended to highlight.

Air cargo gains ground with shippers, but concerns remain on waybill changes

Airfreight is becoming an increasingly important contingency option for shippers, but new rules on direct air waybills could cause complexity, according to Global Shippers Forum director James Hookham. At Aviation Connect in Athens this week, Mr Hookham said air had traditionally been regarded as "Plan B", but since Covid had become increasingly embedded in supply chain planning. And with post-peak season holidays approaching, he added, shippers were more likely to turn to air transport as deadlines for Black Friday, Thanksgiving, and Christmas approached. "At a time when goods must be in for onward distribution, to meet sales windows and contractual deadlines, the customer may reach for the air cargo solution." But he said airfreight was especially "part and parcel of the planning for many shippers" now, because ocean transport had become less predictable, creating opportunities for the air cargo sector. Mr Hookham stressed to air cargo stakeholders that shippers should not be treated as a single, homogeneous customer group, their requirements varied, according to cargo type, destination, delivery speed, and handling requirements. For airports, however, one of the most important considerations was simply "how little time my cargo spends in a particular airport"; and he underscored that efficient interaction between commercial and statutory processes was crucial to minimising that dwell time. But he also highlighted the potential implications of recent changes on liability in direct air waybills - an issue he said could become increasingly important for shippers, forwarders, and insurers, as the changes by IATA altered where liability could fall in the event of a dispute or disruption involving a DAB. "Instead of dealing with the original shipper, the decision has been taken for the forwarder [to be the liable party], even though they are acting as an agent in the booking rather than as a contracted party. "I was surprised by the number of shippers that are affected by this," he added. However, he said, it was still too early to determine the operational impact, partly because awareness of the change had been slow to reach the market. "When I was in Australia and New Zealand last month, I have to say it hadn't really registered as an operational issue." And Mr Hookham warned: "It creates uncertainty, possibly risk; certainly for the forwarder community, with some unwelcome new liabilities which they either seek to avoid, which causes some changes in arrangements, or possibly leads to insurance, which again causes costs, which nobody wants to want to pass on." He said the lack of clarity meant the issue could ultimately become a matter for the courts. "Unfortunately, I think this is going to end up with the lawyers," he said. "Watch this space because I think it will be a continuing issue."