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US importers need better visibility of every deal before goods are shipped

US importers can no longer treat customs clearance as the end of their compliance obligations - customs is increasingly scrutinising entries for months after cargo has been released, according to compliance specialists. During a CargoTrans webinar, Rennie Alston, director of trade compliance at CargoTrans, warned that while goods may receive immediate release, this should not be interpreted as the Customs and Border Protection (CBP) agency accepting the accuracy of an entry. "It is not an immediate release it's a conditional release," he said, adding that customs can review an entry through the 314-day 'liquidation' process and that importers remain responsible for retaining supporting records for five years. Mr Alston warned that the distinction was becoming increasingly important, as tariff volatility had prompted companies to alter suppliers, sourcing routes, declared values, and countries of origin. Nunzio De Filippis, co-CEO of CargoTrans, said CBP was increasingly able to identify such changes across an importer's history rather than examining individual shipments. "They can see trends across importers' history," he said, pointing to CBP's investment in technology and AI, allowing it to identify such changes "at much faster speeds than ever before". Mr Alston warned that customs could interpret abrupt changes as evidence of an attempt to circumvent tariffs, unless importers could demonstrate why the change occurred. "Customs operates not in the belief of what we are used to - innocent until proven guilty - customs has a mentality that you are guilty on the appearance of noncompliance, and until you can demonstrate reasonable care," he warned. That means importers need to be able to explain not only what was declared, but why it changed, and that companies should not simply rely on supplier documentation or their customs broker to establish correct shipment origin, classification, and value. Mr Alston said importers should instead have visibility of the transaction before goods are shipped, including purchase orders, commercial invoices, quantities, origin, and classification. He also urged companies to strengthen broker oversight and examine their customs data proactively. "Never say 'this is how we've always done it'," Mr Alston warned, arguing that such an approach could encourage CPB to broaden its review beyond a single entry and examine how long that practice had been followed.

Congestion and ship delays take 2.3m teu capacity off the market

Container shipping's deteriorating schedule reliability has effectively taken 2.3m teu of vessel capacity out of the market. According to Sea-Intelligence's latest Global Liner Performance data, schedule reliability fell to 56.4% in July, its lowest level since February 2025 and the weakest performance since the current alliance structure was introduced. The average delay for vessels arriving late extended to more than six days - excluding the immediate aftermath of the Red Sea crisis in January 2024, delays of this length have only occurred during the worst of the pandemic disruption. According to the analyst, all this means 6.6% of the global container fleet is unavailable to the market, equivalent to around 2.3m teu, the capacity of the world's sixth-largest carrier, Sea-Intelligence said. It noted that pre-pandemic, vessel delays typically absorbed about 2.2% of global capacity, so the current figure represents more than four percentage points above the structural baseline. The immediate cause is largely seasonal, a succession of typhoons disrupting major Asian ports. And Sea-Intelligence estimates that, based on the experience of the pandemic and Red Sea crisis, it could take between 4.5 and six months to bring congestion back to the low point recorded in June 2025. Returning to end-2025 levels could take two to 3.5 months. And consultancy Braemar suggested the current congestion issue was largely localised, and not global. It noted that Shanghai and Ningbo were under pressure, with Santos another hotspot, but northern European gateways were generally seeing vessel waiting times measured in hours, or a few days, rather than pandemic-style queues. Further, Braemar noted that congestion did not automatically equal lost capacity, as cargo could be shifted to another sailing, service, or carrier, particularly across the six major east-west trades, which together deploy around 1,378 vessels, with 15.7m teu of capacity. For now, it said, the evidence pointed to pockets of congestion, rather than a global capacity squeeze. But as newbuilds from the growing orderbook enter service, Braemar warned, the relationship between ship size and port infrastructure could become increasingly important. The global container fleet represents roughly 1,500 km of vessel length, while the orderbook adds 419 km - almost 28% of the existing fleet length, as much of the new capacity is on larger ships. Braemar warned that the industry was, therefore, adding not only capacity but vessel length, increasing demand for berths, cranes, and yard capacity. Sea Intelligence summarised: "Normalisation of the Red Sea will create a sharp drop in demand, when distance is taken into account. A gigantic orderbook is about to be delivered as well. The numbers essentially show that this does not add up. "Not that the market might crash, but we will get a downturn, even as the carriers will attempt to stem the tide. "At the top of every market cycle, we always hear arguments from carriers as to why the orderbook is not a problem. How they have become more disciplined, such that they will not allow rates to go below cost. How - this is the new pitch - port congestion will be permanent. How 'this time is different'. Yet, in every previous cycle, for the past decades, it was never different. "Of course, this time might be different indeed. But when we look at the numbers, we get a distinct feeling of déjà vu," the analyst concluded.

Car-carrier owners pivot towards China as vehicle export boom continues

Amid China's vehicle export boom, car-carrier owners in the west are prioritising their vessels to transport Chinese new-energy vehicles, and commissioning more newbuildings to target this market. Wallenius Wilhelmsen CEO Lasse Kristoffersen said, during the company's H1 26 earnings call, the company was focused on the surge in Chinese vehicle exports and saw it as a major source of demand for its car-carrier fleet. He said: "We were expecting China to export some 10m cars this year, if they got the capacity. We still believe that is the best guess, but in June - and increasing in July - they passed one million car exports per month, meaning that the current run rate indicates more than 12m cars ex-China this year. "Remember, before Covid China's annual vehicle exports were 1m or fewer." He continued: "China continues to grow. [Chinese cars] used to be a cheap product. Now it is a preferred product." And China's boom contrasted with the falling market share of European and US car-makers, added Mr Kristoffersen. Wallenius Wilhelmsen estimates that, in terms of ro-ro capacity, there is a shortage of 2m-4m ceu. Mr Kristoffersen said: "What we feared a couple of years ago was that there was a big orderbook going back to 2024. Despite a massive growth in the fleet, all of it has been consumed and there're hardly any vessels available for charter over the next few years. "We've actively renegotiated some of our contracts to reflect the current market and cost." Many Chinese customers appear to want longer car-carrier charter contracts and prefer to move vehicles on these vessels, but capacity remains tight. This has stimulated a renewed round of newbuilding orders for pure car and truck carriers (PCTCs). On Wednesday, UK-based tonnage provider Ray Car Carriers commissioned ten LNG dual-fuelled 8,200 ceu ships from Guangzhou Shipyard International, its first order in China. The Abraham Ungar-controlled company is paying $100m per ship, with delivery between 2029 and 2031. There are, reportedly, options for four more vessels. And last week, Hoegh Autoliners returned to China Merchants Heavy Industry (Jiangsu) after a four-year hiatus, for six 9,100 ceu PCTCs for delivery between 2029 and 2031. CEO Andreas Enger said in its H1 earnings call last month Hoegh's PCTCs were 'sold out' for this year, with a strong backlog going into 2027, adding: "Charter rates are climbing and newbuild orderbooks are fully absorbed by the Chinese growth." He estimated that because of insufficient PCTCs, as many as 1.5m cars have been moved in containers this year so far. Meanwhile, also commissioning PCTCs last week was SFL, which ordered four at 7,000 ceu for delivery in 2029, two of which have already been chartered by an Asian car-maker for five years, adding $150m to SFL's firm charter backlog.