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Demand the driver as carriers prepare for Q4 capacity management

European container demand could weaken in the fourth quarter, as a significant share of this year's peak season cargo appears to have been brought forward. According to Italian container logistics provider Sogese's August Europe Container Market Update, demand rather than vessel capacity will be the key variable for the remainder of 2026, with carriers continuing to manage supply carefully, despite fleet growth. "Peak season used to test how much capacity a business could secure. Today it tests how consistently it can execute. The companies that perform best this year will not necessarily move more containers. They will make fewer planning revisions, position inventory earlier, and sustain operational discipline for longer," said Andrea Monti, CEO and MD, Sogese. The warning comes as global schedule reliability deteriorates. Recent Sea-Intelligence data showed reliability falling to 62.6% in June from 64.5% in May, with vessels arriving an average 5.3 days behind schedule. Maersk was the most reliable of the top 13 carriers, at 77.1%, followed by Hapag-Lloyd at 75.6%, and MSC at 72.1%., Meanwhile, freight rates have begun to soften, according to Drewry's World Container Index. The WCI reached $4,639 per 40ft on 9 July before falling 3%, to $4,255 by 30 July. Sogese says the simultaneous decline in rates and schedule reliability suggests demand is retreating faster than carriers are reducing capacity. The company estimated that close to 20% of nominal global fleet capacity is effectively unavailable, with Cape of Good Hope diversions alone absorbing about 2.5m teu and adding one to two weeks to transit times. Sogese also pointed to evidence of earlier-than-usual peak demand, with Rotterdam's deepsea container volumes rising 5.2% in the first half, including an 8% increase in imports from Asia, while overall container throughput remained broadly flat. Sogese's base case is for demand normalisation in Q4, with inventories rebalancing, freight rates correcting further, and effective capacity increasing. Carriers are expected to manage the adjustment through blanked sailings and network changes rather than a sharp correction. "The real question is not whether disruption continues. It is how the market behaves once this peak unwinds. "Carrier discipline and inventory levels will decide whether today's balance holds or a new phase of volatility begins, and businesses that plan for both outcomes will be better placed than those betting on a single scenario," said Mr Monti.

New Jersey's misclassification win over STG Logistics puts drayage operators on notice

Look here: the first lawsuit filed under the state's 2021 misclassification statute has produced a settlement. And October's codified ABC test regulations will only sharpen the enforcement blade. Read on... A US-based trucking company that bought its way into intermodal drayage with a $710 million acquisition recently got a lesson in the limits of the independent contractor model, and anyone running owner-operator fleets in the Garden State should be taking note. As reported earlier this month, STG Logistics agreed to pay ...

US demand for imported goods unabated, despite tariff turbulence

US container imports rose 4.5% in July, according to Descartes data, with China-origin cargo reaching its highest monthly level since July 2025, as demand continued to defy the turbulent trade and geopolitical backdrop. Descartes revealed that 2.51 million teu entered the US last month, up from 2.4m teu in June. Volumes were 4.3% below July 2025's near-record 2.62m teu, but were 14.1% above pre-pandemic July 2019. The report found China accounted for much of July's monthly increase, imports from the PRC rising 7.2% from June, to 873,129 teu, which took its share of total US container imports to 34.8%, up from 33.9% in June. However last month's tally was 5.4% below July 2025, when suspected tariff front-loading pushed China-origin imports to 923,075 teu - but was the strongest monthly total since then. The rise suggests US import demand is showing a slight rebound, despite tariffs, shifting sourcing strategies, and disruption across major maritime routes. US imports from the top ten countries of origin were up 4.9% month on month, with China accounting for 58,655 of the 83,706 teu increase. Hong Kong, Germany, Japan, South Korea, and India also recorded gains. But compared with the same period last year, imports from the top ten were down 5.3% last month, with China responsible for roughly half the 99,779 teu decline. Overall, US imports for the first seven months of the yeat were just 0.9% down, year on year, suggesting the market has largely absorbed the impact of tariff changes and geopolitical uncertainty without a major demand collapse. Descartes also explained that July's figures followed the normal seasonal pattern of higher volumes during the peak shipping period. The ten top US gateways handled 5.1% more cargo last month than in June, Long Beach surging 15.8% and Houston 19.9%. West coast ports increased their share of imports to 45%, while east and Gulf coast gateways accounted for 39.8%. Imports through the latter being particularly strong, rebounding 13.8% from June. to 242,507 teu. and 8.3% above their rolling 12-month average. There were signs of increasing operational pressure, however. Delays increased at most major gateways, with Long Beach seeing the sharpest deterioration, from an average of 2.3 days in June to 5.2 days in July. However, Los Angeles was the notable exception, with delays falling from 5.8 days to 1.8 days. Descartes warned that importers would face continued uncertainty from changing US tariffs, tighter Panama Canal draught restrictions, Red Sea disruption, and elevated Strait of Hormuz risk. However, the July numbers point to a market still moving substantial volumes despite those pressures - with China's resurgence providing the clearest indication that US import demand remains resilient. NOTE: Maritime consultant John McCown has previously highlighted discrepancies within Descartes data and noted that it was "unclear" what process the Canadian company used to obtain information prior to official port or customs releasing their container volume counts.