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'Severe supply imbalance' threat as record box ship deliveries loom

The global containership fleet is set to expand by almost 50% by 2030, with even record levels of vessel scrapping unlikely to prevent a severe supply imbalance. In its latest report, Sea-Intelligence forecast the fleet will grow from almost 34m teu today to 40m teu by Q2 28, and 50m teu by the Q3 30. The analyst expects average annual fleet growth of 10% between 2027 and 2030, based on existing orders, with further newbuilding contracts potentially increasing that figure. Quarterly deliveries are forecast to average 1m teu over the period, peaking at 1.8m teu in the third quarter of 2028. This compares with average quarterly deliveries of 560,000 teu between 2023 and 2026, highlighting the scale of capacity due to enter the market. Sea-Intelligence said the current orderbook, covering vessels scheduled for delivery through March 2031, stood at 15.7m teu, equivalent to 46.4% of the existing fleet, while Xeneta's latest assessment puts it slightly lower, at 15.47m teu - a difference of around 230,000 teu. Sea-Intelligence said the ordering surge had begun in the third quarter of 2024, with new contracts averaging 1.5m teu every quarter. So even an unprecedented demolition programme would do little to offset the incoming capacity, according to Sea-Intelligence. In 2016, carriers scrapped a record 670,000 teu, equivalent to just 3.3% of the fleet, during the industry's previous overcapacity crisis. Repeating that level of demolition every year between 2027 and 2030 would offset less than 17% of the scheduled deliveries, leaving annual fleet growth at 8.5%. Peter Sand, chief analyst at Xeneta, told The Loadstar only 600,000 teu had been demolished since 2019. Xeneta estimates that just 3.4m teu of existing capacity is at least 21.8 years old, the average demolition age recorded between 2016 and 2019. Mr Sand explained: "Containerships are built to last a life at sea, so they are mainly demolished for commercial and operational reasons rather than wear and tear." He expects demolition to increase if a large-scale return to Red Sea transits released capacity currently absorbed by longer voyages. However, the age and size of vessels available for demolition complicate the prospect of meaningful fleet renewal. Jonathan Roach, analyst at Braemar, told The Loadstar there were 1,944 vessels aged 20 years or more, with 1,903 ships on order. He said: "On paper, the numbers look remarkably similar, but this is where the comparison ends. There is a major mismatch in vessel sizes." Older vessels are concentrated in the smaller sub-panamax fleet, while newbuilding orders are weighted towards larger ships, he explained. This means demolition could remove substantial numbers of older vessels, but not compensating for an equivalent amount of incoming capacity. Jan Tiedemann, VP liner strategy at Alphaliner, told The Loadstar he expected scrapping to increase in 2027 and 2028 without offsetting the newbuilding influx. He identified several factors that could increase demand for vessel capacity, including longer trade routes, slow-steaming and rising consumption in emerging markets. He also pointed to the replacement needs of larger vessels built between 2000 and 2010, many of which will approach the end of their commercial lives in the mid-2030s.

Carriers sense growth and pour capacity into ex-India ocean trades

Indian trades are seeing a fresh wave of container capacity injections by Asian carriers, as regional freight demand remains upbeat. Among the predominant regional lines, OOCL, HMM, and Emirates Shipping (ESL) have markedly consolidated their operations in India in recent months, with more service launches and network enhancements. Hong Kong-based OOCL is to launch a shuttle loop connecting India's east coast ports of Chennai and Visakhapatnam to Port Klang in Malaysia at the end of the month, a single port of destination (POD) connection targeting Indian transhipment cargo. "The FCS4 will provide direct connections, offering improved flexibility, connectivity, and service reliability for cargo movements between Malaysia and East India," the Cosco subsidiary told customers. The move complements two intra-Asia services OOCL added out of India's west coast (JNPA/Mundra) in Q2 26. They are: South-east Asia-Indian Subcontinent Service 2 (SIS2), on a rotation of Qinzhou, Yangpu, Haiphong, Singapore, Mundra, Singapore, Hong Kong and Qinzhou; and the South-east Asia-Indian Subcontinent Service (SIS), rotating Laem Chabang, Singapore, Port Klang, JNPA (Nhava Sheva), Mundra, Karachi, Port Klang, Singapore and Laem Chabang. Similarly, ESL has expanded its capacity out of India by splitting its Red Sea network into two loops, deploying two vessels on each in a pendulum fashion. The upgraded twin operations begin this month: the South Red Sea Service (SRS), on a rotation of JNPA, Jeddah, and JNPA; and the North Red Sea Service (NRS), on a rotation of JNPA, Djibouti, Aqaba, Sokhna, Sohar, and JNPA, according to industry updates. Meanwhile, South Korean liner HMM opened a new India-East Africa loop in late September, in conjunction with Cosco, Interasia Lines, and PIL, to tap into growing demand on the trade. The Gulf-India-East Africa (GIA) links JNPA, Mundra, Dar es Salaam, Mombasa, and JNPA on a 35-day rotation, arguably a more competitive option than other networks previously available for the promising India-Africa market. Alongside the entrenched operators, Indian shippers have seen capacity coming from new market entrants, like Vietnam-based Hai An Lines, which last month launched the standalone CVI service connecting Chennai, South-east Asia and China, with the 1,800-teu Haian Beta. Industry sources believe this frenzied capacity influx reflects carrier expectations of sustained growth opportunities ex-India, as the economy is forecast to expand faster than other traditional emerging markets. Its real GDP is estimated to have recorded an impressive 7.8% expansion in Q1 of fiscal year 2026-27, according to the latest government data. Reflecting that buoyant economic outlook, container volumes through Indian ports, especially JNPA, have gained measurable pace this year. JNPA hit its highest-ever monthly throughput last month, handling some 865,000 teu, up from 680,000 teu in October 2025, with year-to-date volumes reaching 5.5m teu, a 19% spike year on year, data shows. Despite the geopolitical challenges, India's export sector has remained resilient through 2026, industry participants also claim. "Our exporters continue to respond to uncertainty with agility, strengthening their presence across markets and product categories," said SC Ralhan, president of the Federation of Indian Export Organisations. "The broad-based contribution of traditional and emerging sectors adds depth to this performance," he added.

DHL is "first express cargo carrier" to use SAF at Paris CDG Airport

DHL Express has signed a fuel deal that will enable it to become the first express cargo carrier to use sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) at Paris Charles de Gaulle (CDG) Airport. The one-year partnership with TotalEnergies covers 5m litres of SAF over the course of one year to fuel aircraft departing from the DHL Express hub at Paris CDG to the company's air hubs in Leipzig, Casablanca, Milan, and London. DHL said the first DHL aircraft powered with SAF at CDG took off on 9 November. As well as becoming the first express cargo carrier to use SAF at Paris CDG, this is also the first time SAF will be used by DHL Express in France altogether. For DHL in France, this initiative is expected to reduce CO₂e emissions by approximately 11,800 metric tons annually. Travis Cobb, executive vice president global network operations & aviation at DHL Express, commented: "This latest milestone is part of DHL's global strategy to decarbonise express transportation and help our customers reduce their transport-related indirect emissions. "In 2025, SAF already accounted for 10% of the aviation fuel used across DHL's own aircraft fleet, positioning our Group as a leader in both logistics and aviation sustainability." Philippe Prétat, chief executive of DHL Express France, added: "Five years ago, the opening of our Paris Charles de Gaulle Hub marked a major milestone in the development of DHL Express in France. "Today, the introduction of Sustainable Aviation Fuel at this facility opens a new chapter. By becoming the first express operator to use SAF at Paris CDG Airport, we are demonstrating that world-class international logistics performance and a reduced carbon footprint can go hand in hand. "This initiative reflects our commitment to supporting French businesses in their global trade activities while contributing to the transformation of our industry." The introduction of SAF into DHL Express's air operations at Paris CDG coincides with the fifth anniversary of DHL's hub at the airport. Opened in 2021 following an investment of €170m, the 24-hour facility represents the largest investment made by DHL in France since the company established operations in the country in 1976. It is also one of the key hubs within DHL's European network. Located in the Paris CDG cargo zone, the site occupies a 91,000 sq m plot and offers 34,000 sq m of operational space. Its sorting system can process up to 38,000 parcels and documents per hour, fifteen times the capacity of the facility it replaced.