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Value of 747-400 freighters rise despite fleet age

The value of Boeing 747-400 freighters rose by over 100% from the second to the third quarter of this year, research by aviation consultancy IBA shows. Analysis from Mike Yeomans, head of advisory services at IBA shows that base values for factory-built and converted 747-400Fs increased by an average of 114% from the second quarter of 2026 to the current quarter. Base value is defined by the International Society of Transport Aircraft Trading (ISTAT) and is the appraiser's opinion of the value of an aircraft or other aviation-related asset in a stable market with a reasonable balance of supply and demand. "This increase reflects the enduring economic value of their engines and components despite the fleet's average age of over 26 years," said IBA. Jonathan McDonald, classic and cargo aircraft manager and senior ISTAT certified appraiser additionally told Air Cargo News that there has been sustained demand for 747-400Fs, and while the Airbus A350Fs and Boeing 777-8Fs will likely eventually replace use of 747Fs, this will not happen anytime soon. "Other factors driving these sharp increases in Base Values include strong, and sustained demand for these high-capacity four-engine aircraft, particularly in the Asia Pacific markets," said McDonald. "Major Boeing 747-400 Freighter operators including Cargolux, Singapore Airlines, Air France KLM, Martinair Cargo and Atlas Air have orders for Airbus A350F and Boeing 777-8Fs. "Initially these newer twin engine aircraft appear to be as supplementary lift, but it is most likely that they will also emerge as eventual replacements for these older Boeing 747-400 freighters. "This process is unlikely to occur anytime soon meaning for the next few years Boeing 747-400 freighters in all guises are likely to remain strong in demand. With this, Base Values can only remain robust for the models; at least until a larger scale fleet decline occurs." He further stated that despite the air cargo operating and supply chain challenges that geopolitical disruption has resulted in this year, traders continue to report strong pricing of 747-400Fs. "The freighter market is traditionally a very resilient part of the aviation industry and circumstances for 2026 seem no exception." Boeing delivered the last newbuild aircraft of the original 747 family, a -400ER freighter, in December 2009. The revised base values for freighters form part of IBA's latest market value and market lease rate update, in which IBA's global team of aviation experts reviewed 94 commercial passenger and freighter aircraft models. Data from IBA's Intelligence platform, IBA Insight also showed that base values for popular converted narrowbody freighters, including Boeing 737-800 and Airbus A321-200 aircraft, increased by an average of approximately 17%. IBA explained that the rise in values was "supported by higher engine values, stronger feedstock pricing assumptions, and growing recognition of established and OEM-supported conversion programmes". The company has previously said that A321-200 passenger to freighter (P2F) conversions will become much more common in the future as passenger feedstock becomes available, Newer Boeing 777 converted freighter programmes also became more valuable, said IBA. Base values for the 777-200LRMF rose by an average of 17%, while base values for the 777-300ERSF rose by an average of 19%. This reflected "stronger demand and growing market confidence in both programmes", said IBA. The market intelligence firm said last year that demand for 777-300ER freighter conversions is surging due to the upcoming end of the 777 production programme, but feedstock is proving hard to find. There are currently three 777-300ER conversion programmes in place with Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI), Kansas Modification Center (KMC) and Mammoth Freighters, plus one 777-200LR programme in development with Mammoth. To date, 11 Boeing 777-300ERSF aircraft have been converted by IAI and are in operational use by customers across Europe, North America and Asia. Mammoth continues to make progress on its 777-300ERMF conversion programme and expects Supplemental Type Certification (STC) from the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) later this year. KMC said in December 2025 that it expected to begin flight testing and the STC process for its 777-300ERCF freighter conversion programme in the third quarter of this year. Boeing is also seeking an emissions exemption from the US Department of Transportation (DOT) to enable it to continue selling 777 freighters beyond the end of 2027 and bridge the gap until its 777-8 freighter comes to market. The US aircraft manufacturer aims to sell 35 more 777Fs. Research by IBA published in May found widebody freighter conversions exceeded narrowbody conversions for the first time since 2009, largely because of a slowdown in the number of narrowbody conversions, rather than an increase in widebody conversions.

Flexport - the losses mount (again) and paper value drops (again)

Every dog has its day, they say. Rewind You may recall this Premium piece published at the end of 2025: 'Flexport in Spaghetti-land - Pacman's shared insight'. It was about me allegedly being "utterly wrong", according to Flexport president Sanne Manders, who commented on my previous 'Flexport's healing' take, seemingly (to me) comparing apples and oranges. Side disclosure: Flexport is private, so I asked for a clarification call with Manders soon after my Spaghetti-land-part-one coverage; still waiting to hear back.

Drone carrying explosives found at Leipzig Airport

A counterterrorism investigation was opened by the German authorities yesterday after a drone carrying explosives was found near a runway at Leipzig/Halle Airport overnight. Areas of the site, which is the location of a major DHL hub, were shut down. It is not clear whether the airport has since fully re-opened the southern runway having been closed earlier in the day. The discovery was made by an airport employee who spotted the device in a restricted cargo area near the southern runway in proximity to parked Ukrainian freighter aircraft according to a report which quoted local police. As a precaution several DHL aircraft scheduled to land at Leipzig-Halle were diverted. German police used a robot to inspect the drone and a detonator was removed. Later, they carried out a controlled explosion. Counterterrorism officers are also investigating another incident which saw an unidentified object collide with a cargo aircraft, thought to be operated by DHL, near the same airport. On landing at Hanover, it was discovered to have suffered only minor damage. Ukraine's ambassador to Germany, Oleksii Makeiev, speaking on German TV, said: "Who else could it be but Russia?" In July 2024 a parcel burst into flames on the ground at Leipzig/Halle Airport having been due to be loaded onto a DHL aircraft. This was one of a series of parcel fires that targeted the UK and EU countries. It led to suspicions of Russian involvement. Leipzig/Halle Airport serves as a base for Germany's armed forces and NATO allies for the transport of military cargo goods and also for Ukraine's Antonov Airlines, which handles the vast majority of the country's airborne shipments.