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Increased yields push up United's cargo revenue up in Q2

United's cargo revenue was up 22.6% year on year in the second quarter of 2026 due to increased yields. Cargo revenue at the US airline was $527m in the second quarter of 2026, compared to $430m in the second quarter of 2025. During the airline's second quarter 2026 earnings call, Scott Kirby, chief executive of United, said most of the improvement in cargo revenue came from higher yields rather than increased shipment volumes. Kirby commented: "Cargo had a really strong quarter. Most of the gains in cargo were yield related, not volume related, and I expect that to continue into Q3 as well." In the first quarter of the year, when carriers faced the start of the Middle East conflict and rising jet fuel prices, air cargo revenue had dropped 1.6% for United. Kirby did not elaborate on cargo shipment price increases in the call, but the airline indicated that although jet fuel prices have been a cost pressure, revenues, including cargo, were healthy in the quarter. On 18 April, United announced it would implement a "Market Disruption Fee" on freight shipments for airway bills (AWB) issued on or after 1 May. The fee is applicable based on the chargeable weight of the shipment. The airline said at the time: "The Market Disruption Fee reflects United Cargo's increased cost of doing business globally. United Cargo faces the challenge of rising costs imposed on us by our suppliers, partners, and by the market." Despite volumes not being United's main air cargo revenue driver, the airline transported nearly 347m pounds of cargo in the second quarter - the most for a second quarter since 2020, and 20m more pounds than in the same quarter last year. This included more than 9m pounds of medical shipments and 232,000 pounds of military shipments. Delta Airlines' cargo revenue increased 39% in its second quarter, which the airline attributed to volume growth as it seeks expansion in Asia and the Middle East.

Ocean capacity is rising, demand is cooling, and 'the market is starting to turn'

Container spot freight rates on the main east-west ocean trades showed their first decline since the end of April - a first sign that the market is emerging from the peak season, at least in terms of pricing. This week's World Container Index (WCI) from Drewry saw Shanghai-Rotterdam drop 1%, to $4,873 per 40ft, while on the Shanghai-Genoa, the week-on-week decline was slightly steeper, at 3%, to end $6,300 per 40ft. The decline came despite the fact that carriers had begun the week hoping new FAK (freight all kinds) rates, ranging from $7,900 to $8,500 per 40ft, introduced on Wednesday would help keep prices elevated. However, in the early part of this week Linerlytica noted "aggressive rate cuts by Gemini partners triggering rival carriers to slash rates through the end of July". It added: "Hapag-Lloyd led the rate cuts last week with rates of below $5,000 per 40ft, which triggered Maersk and CMA CGM to cut their rates to $4,800-$4,900 per 40ft for sailings in the final week of July. "Current carrier rate offers range widely, from $4,500 to $7,000 per 40ft, but are on a clear downward trajectory," the Hong Kong-based analyst said. Today's Shanghai Shanghai Containerised Freight Index (SCFI) - which records rates quoted for the forthcoming week and, as such, indicates the behaviour of the following week's WCI - recorded a 3.5% drop on its Shanghai-North Europe base port leg, to $5,422 per 40ft, and a 4.5% decline on its Shanghai-Mediterranean base port, to $6,358 per 40ft. Whether the change in direction of rates is due to declining demand is unlikely, however, with large roll pools built up in China over the past 10 weeks still to be cleared. Rather, suggested Xeneta's senior shipping analyst, Emily Stausbøll, the main culprit was carriers introducing more capacity. "The shift is driven by carriers continuing to ramp up offered capacity across the main fronthaul trades, and the front-loading demand that fuelled the spike beginning to ease," she explained. "Shippers pulled forward volumes at the start of the peak season to avoid expected Q3 bunker adjustment factor increases and protect supply chains from the Middle East disruption rippling across global trades. "The irony is that this front-loading contributed to a capacity squeeze that then pushed spot rates higher than they likely would have been otherwise. "The front-loading means peak season effectively started in May this year rather than July, and, logically, it will also be over sooner in the absence of underlying growth in container shipping demand. "This, combined with increasing offered capacity, is perhaps why we are starting to see a softening in rates," she added. According to Xeneta data, capacity offered by carriers on the Far East-North Europe was up 9.5% week on week, as per a four-week rolling average, and up 11% week on week on the Far East-Mediterranean trade. A similar picture unfolded on the transpacific trades this week, with the WCI's Shanghai-Los Angeles route decreasing 3%, to $6,272 per 40ft, while the Shanghai-New York leg was flat, at $7,879 per 40ft. According to Xeneta, transpacific capacity into the US west coast this week was up 6.5%, compared with the week before, and up 15.4% into the US east coast. However, with Drewry noting that nine blanked sailings are scheduled for the transpacific next week, "carriers' proactive capacity management should prevent spot freight rates from falling significantly". Ms Stausboll agreed: "It is too early to call this a sustained decline and spot rates remain massively elevated compared with pre-crisis levels - Far East to US West Coast is still up 252% since the end of February. "Increasing military strikes between Iran and the US, while not translating directly into higher freight rates, could also pause the softening if the situation deteriorates further. "But the direction of travel is becoming clear: capacity is rising, demand is cooling, and the market is starting to turn," she added. However, on the transpacific the momentum could turn again, US west coast forwarder Freight Right observed, should the uncertainty around US tariff policies become clearer. "The next two weeks are likely to determine the direction of the transpacific market - if tariff uncertainty is resolved with lower or eliminated duties, import demand could quickly rebound, potentially creating an extended peak season through August and September, and pushing ocean rates higher again. "However, if tariffs remain in place or increase, market participants expect booking volumes to weaken further, putting additional downward pressure on freight rates," it said.

Forwarders say policy not consumers will determine green transition

Purchasing patterns indicate that governments cannot rely on consumers to shift the scales in the green transition; the rapid surge in ecommerce demand indicates that legislative changes are essential for cleaner supply chains. Economic uncertainty fostered by Covid and wars in Europe and the Middle East, as well as the climate sceptical approach that has been adopted in the US since the return of Donald Trump to the White House, have all helped undermine efforts towards green supply chains. One forwarder told The Loadstar: "Conversations around sustainability have changed over the past year, with rising operating costs, economic uncertainty, and geopolitical pressures among the key issues affecting forwarders' behaviour. "These factors have understandably shifted priorities back towards resilience, cost control, and supply chain continuity. Sustainability is perhaps no longer dominating headlines in quite the same way, but it certainly doesn't mean it has disappeared from boardroom discussions." With businesses struggling to contend with these issues, there was hope government policy and funding support could aid the transition to continue at a pace. Instead, those The Loadstar spoke to have expressed frustration about not only the lack of financial support being offered by governments across Europe and North America, but what they claimed to have been inconsistent and unclear policy positions. Anne Shudy Palmer, Green Worldwide Shipping's director of sustainability, told The Loadstar: "Between increasing extreme weather events, geopolitical instability, and regulatory volatility, SME forwarders are coming to terms with 'uncertainty' as the new normal." Some forwarders, including Green Worldwide, have turned to nongovernmental organisations like Smart Freight Centre to coordinate zero-emission transport projects, find sustainability-focused partners and customers, and promote favourable policy and voluntary guidelines. But others are not, hanging their hopes on the prospect that consumers may stump up the additional costs required to run greener supply chains - a hope the director general of Clecat, Nicolette van der Jagt, described as "misguided". "Consumer behaviour is not compensating for weaker political pressure. In fact, consumption patterns, particularly the rapid growth of ecommerce, continue to drive transport demand," Ms van der Jagt told The Loadstar. She added that while consumers may express a preference for sustainable products and delivery options, it was clear from the data that purchasing decisions were still largely being driven by price, convenience, and speed. There was consensus the logistics sector was prepared to the make necessary investments to green supply chains, she said, but this would require not only certainty from present governments, but from any possible future governments, of legislative consistency.