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German security agencies baulk at Cosco bid for Zippel

German authorities are reportedly set to block Cosco's acquisition of Hamburg logistics outfit Konrad Zippel, following pressure from security agencies that the deal would give China too great a handle across regional maritime infrastructure. Citing a "classified" note, German outlet Handelsblatt said the federal government was ready to act on concerns, flagged by domestic security services, that the deal formed part of a "cumulative acquisition strategy" to gain a strategic foothold at the port. At the time of publishing neither German authorities nor representatives of Hamburg Port Authority or Zippel had responded to requests for comment from The Loadstar, but Zippel MD Axel Plass has rejected security concerns related to the deal. Earlier this year, Mr Plass said the Cosco deal was about "winning and retaining cargo", not part of a Chinese plan to gain strategic control over German infrastructure, adding that under the proposals, "all jobs will be preserved". Under Cosco's proposal, the state-owned Chinese shipping giant would acquire an 80% stake in Zippel, through its Dutch subsidiary Goldlead Supply Chain Development, with Mr Plass retaining 20%. With the deal for Germany's oldest freight forwarding company having been cleared by competition authority Bundeskartellamt, back in February, Mr Plass stressed that, from a national security perspective, Zippel has just a 1.5% market share. The security agencies are not opposed to the deal, their concern lies in it forming part of a broader acquisition strategy, beginning with Cosco's contentious 2023 purchase of a 24.99% stake in the Tollerot container terminal (CTT). Having initially sought a 35% stake in CTT, German authorities intervened to prevent the deal, on the grounds that giving Cosco - and, by extension, the Chinese government - a controlling stake in a Hamburg terminal would be a strategic liability. It was only after Chancellor Olaf Scholz stepped in, that a compromise 24.99% stake was reached, although even this necessitated six months of checks and assessments by German security agencies before final sign-off. Considered alongside its fleet of vessels and stake in Tollerot, the security agencies believe control of Zippel and its intermodal and hinterland activities would afford the Chinese state influence over a key node of German infrastructure. The deal, however, also comes at a time when container lines are expanding their operating footprint well beyond their traditional ocean-going operations, Maersk, through APMT, boasting strong vertical integration at multiple ports around the world, for example. Only in August did German operator Hapag-Lloyd announce its plans to acquire a 25% stake in Rotterdam's APM Terminals Maasvlakte II, citing a desire to secure "long-term" terminal capacity in the region.

Hormuz closure a fatal blow for Dubai and Abu Dhabi transhipment volumes

The closure of the Hormuz Straits, now approaching its eighth month, has been predicted to lead to the permanent loss transhipment traffic for the Gulf's two largest container facilities, Jebel Ali and Khalifa. Prior to the outbreak of the US-Israel-Iran conflict, the two UAE ports were a favoured waypoint for relay transhipment operations - boxes moving between Asia-Europe vessels and ships deployed on north-south trades. However, a combination of soaring insurance premiums on vessels passing though Hormuz and the major carriers redesigning their networks to insert alternative transhipment calls could spell the death knell for port operators DP World and AD Ports' hopes of reinvigorating their transhipment volumes when the conflict ends. "Relay transhipment doesn't come back - ever," said Eirik Hooper, Drewry's senior associate for ports and terminals said in the consultancy's Freight Loop podcast yesterday. "It's the most price elastic and least sticky cargo type in container shipping because it follows network design, not geography. "So once MSC has moved a call to Khor Fakkan; once CMA CGM has built its logistics capability at Sohar; once the carriers have rebuilt their networks around Salalah, Colombo, Vizhinjam or Jeddah, there's no case for reinstating a Hormuz transit to serve cargo that never needed to enter the Gulf," he added. And he further argued that the July agreement signed between by DP World and Fujairah Port Authority for a 50-year concession to construct two terminals outside Hormuz indicated that DP World management had likely come to a similar conclusion. Both DP World and AD Ports reported huge declines in first half volumes at Jebel Ali and Khalifa respectively, due the war, forcing their owners to look elsewhere for growth. "DP World is building 2.5m teu capacity outside of Hormuz and is marketing it as an extension of the Jebel Ali ecosystem - I don't think you can simultaneously argue for a full Jebel Ali transhipment recovery, whilst its owner is planning for the opposite," he said. At the same time, Khor Fakkan owner and operator Gulftainer has drawn up plans to take its annual capacity from 3.5m teu to 10m teu, although this appears to be partly predicated on its new role as a Gulf bypass port that has managed to keep container flows continuing into the Gulf markets. Additionally, he said there was little chance of a decline in insurance premiums for vessels transiting Hormuz: "Insurers will not restore pre-2026 pricing for a strait that's been mined and blockaded, and a hub whose access carries a persistent risk premium and cannot win price-sensitive relay cargo against a Salalah or Colombo - that's structural, not cyclical." Pre-war insurance rates for Gulf-bound ships hovered around 0.1%-0.2% of the vessel's hull value and went up to anywhere between 2.5% and 7.5%, "depending on whose book you're looking at", he noted. However, given the enormous supply chain infrastructure investment the Dubai government has made over the past four decades, Mr Hooper believed Jebel Ali would continue to have a major role to play in regional container supply chains. "There's still a big business there - [upper] Gulf transhipment plus re-export businesses, which are materially smaller, but still substantial. "It will keep its preeminence regionally because of the JAFZA free trade zone, the warehousing, the industrial cluster, the cargo airport - it's taken four decades to build that out and you can't relocate it overnight." But Abu Dhabi's Khalifa port, which has been nibbling away at Jebel Ali's dominance for the past few years, was "a bit more exposed because Kizad [the Khalifa free trade zone] can't claim the same size, longevity, or breadth of customer base to anchor it. "That's the harder conversation for that shareholder group," he added. The three big wins for Khalifa in recent years was due to a shift from a common-user terminal model to dedicated carrier terminals, developing joint-venture facilities with Cosco, CMA CGM and MSC. However, with network redesign forced upon carriers by the war, those volumes have gone elsewhere and carriers are using large amounts capital to support the new networks. "The Hormuz crisis is driving deal making directly - with Jebel Ali and Khalifa inaccessible, MSC needed a structurally safer relay hub outside the Gulf, and one where it held equity; hence it acquiring 49% of Adani's Vizhinjam for $1.4bn," he said. Despite the deal being held up by the local state authority over questions of common access, "given MSC's volumes, it's our view that it will eventually get approved rather than refused, but there may be some conditions attached," Mr Hooper said.

Holiday shopping sprees set to increase - but without delivery headaches?

US consumers will spend 6.7% more online this shopping season than last year, as the mix of goods shifts and the share of internet purchases increases - partly thanks to AI. However, one industry expert does not expect a significant increase in parcel volume, nor serious delivery bottlenecks. Despite inflation, US consumers are expected to spend more shopping in the months ahead - according to Adobe, online consumer spending from 1 November to 31 December will reach $275.1bn, 6.7% more than in the same period in 2025. Deloitte is even more bullish, forecasting growth in online shopping from November through January up between 7.5% and 8.4%, year on year, to between $316bn and 319bn. And the growth in online shopping is expected to outpace that of in-store activity, again - and this year, AI will be an additional factor as shoppers look for bargains. Adobe pointed to a recent survey where 77% of the respondents who leveraged AI in their shopping expressed more confidence in their purchases. Cyber Week will generate $47.5bn in online purchases, 7.4% higher than last year, Adobe predicts. And, while Cyber Monday is expected to see the highest revenue (up 6.2% from last year to more than $15bn), Black Friday should register the strongest growth, +9.2%, to $12.9bn. Although spending is expected to increase, most consumers appear bent on curtailing expenditure as much as possible. In a survey from August, more than 70% said saving money would be a priority, a clear indication that inflation is affecting purchasing decisions. A survey by the Financial Health Network and University of Southern California found more than 30% of households were "burdened with unmanageable levels of debt". Whereas the holiday shopping season has been associated with gifts, this year there is a strong focus on buying essentials, Adobe found. For Cyber Week it predicts purchases of personal hygiene items will rise 150% on average sales levels in September, and clothing basics to surge 210%, while online purchases of baby and pet products are forecast to be up 113% and 93%, respectively. However, the main categories will remain electronics (rising 5.9% year on year, to $63.3bn), and apparel (up 4.7%, to $%1.3bn), with toys and cosmetics sales each expected to increase 10%. The strong numbers are in spite of an early start to the holiday shopping season this year. An estimated 30% of shoppers have already purchased items for the holidays during sales events over the summer. And October ushers-in more days of discounted shopping frenzy, courtesy of Amazon and Target, forecast to generate almost $10bn in online sales. Cathy Morrow Roberson, founder and head analysts of Logistics Trends & Insights, reckons these will be the only days that will produce genuine growth in shopping in the months ahead. For the most part, the higher amounts reflect increases in price, rather than an elevated appetite for shopping, she thinks. "This season is pretty much going to be like last year - nothing super spectacular, not really bad," she predicted. By extension, she does not anticipate dramatic strain on deliveries, adding: "I think there is enough capacity in the market." Past years have seen tens of thousands of extra workers hired to swell the delivery capacity of Amazon and the integrated express carriers, but this is no longer required, thanks to automation and the rise of crowd-sourced final-mile channels. Ms Roberson thinks the integrators may beef up their use of crowd-sourced drivers, however. The integrators have signalled less interest in B2C parcel traffic, their focus more on premium B2C segments like pharmaceuticals, but they have not turned their backs on e-commerce; they have become more selective in this arena, she commented. Still, she expects to see the largest growth in parcel volume in the upcoming shopping season at Amazon and crowd-sourced final-mile services, with regional parcel carriers, US Postal Service and DHL in the mix, ensuring enough capacity will be available.